(2007-12) It was clearly in the cards. Last fall Maryland topped the charts as one of the nation's richest states, with the highest average salary per capita. In short order we also learned that Maryland may be one of the dumbest states, as SAT scores of our students suffered the sharpest drop in the nation. Rich? Dumb? That could only mean tax increase.
For three weeks in November, the General Assembly met to deal with the state's cash flow problem. (The problem? It doesn't have as much cash as needs to flow.) The result was a revenue grab of unprecedented proportions, with a decisive display of followership on slots, which will go to the voters in a referendum this year. (When tasked with leading, officials responded with equivalent of “I dunno, what do you want to do?”) 94 bills were introduced, and as predicted, all save those favored by leadership and dealing with cash were tabled. Turning up the heat (literally) and making impatient legislators listen to each other overnight on a weekend before Thanksgiving turned out to be the political equivalent of waterboarding. Everyone knew pushing a green button got them out of town, and ultimately many of them did so. Policy merits aside, kudos to leadership's tacticians who knew how to get the job done.
Maryland has no mechanism for taking just any question to voters, so how does the slots question get on a ballot? They did it by inserting slots into the state constitution, which triggers one of the few questions that do go to voters. (Got that? No explicit state level recognition of a right to keep and bear arms, but yes for slots …)
Because the special session is portrayed by many as having ‘solved' the state budget problem, the upcoming regular session (starting January 9 th ) could end up a roller coaster ride for social issues. Politics 101 teaches that if you're going to raise taxes, do so as early as possible in the term so you can spend aggressively too. When the next election rolls around, you'll want the ‘good stuff' you bought for constituents to be fresh in their minds so they will forget the pain of your tax hike. What do road construction funds and bonds for special projects in your district have to do with social issues? ‘Progressive' measures often come at a political cost in the home district, so leadership will hold back the extra cash to dole out as favors for those who support the preferred social policy reforms (i.e., buy votes.) The trick for advocates is to influence what social measures become ‘preferred' in the eyes of leadership. The trick for leadership is to know which “reforms” will advantage their broadest base … and which are a reform too far.
We already know we'll see debate on capital punishment, protection of marriage, right to life (embryonic stem cell research), and more, all against a backdrop of the referendum on slots. And this a presidential election year to boot! Will gun control be a priority too? Not if leadership concludes it is dangerous to whip the ponies too hard.
Bottom line: The perception that Annapolis is awash in new cash creates a climate where there is an equal potential for vote buying on social legislation that otherwise wouldn't stand on its own. An entrepreneurial legislator facing a bad vote might now wonder if he can offset ill-will with enough pork for his district. Gunowners would've been far safer going into the coming session if less cash was in motion. Our strategy remains as before : make clear to all that no amount of pork will offset a bad vote on liberty issues. We do this by projecting strength (a well-funded MPFO), unity (broad community support) and resolve (speaking with one voice.) You can make it be so.